Leaving Early
Pete Carroll said there is a 62 percent failure rate for quarterbacks who leave early for the NFL. Draft analyst Mike Mayock said the top senior quarterback in the draft, Rhett Bomar, is only the fifth-best QB in the draft.
Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is the third-best QB behind Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, Mayock said.
When did Pete become a statistician? What is considered a "failure?"
What Pete fails to mention is that there is a similarly high failure rate for QBs who get drafted as seniors. I would like to know that %. Pete's argument is one of selective observation, and thus, misleading. The fact is there is a high failure rate for all NFL QBs drafted, period. The League is tough, man.
You guys don't get it. You cannot compare QBs who leave early against all senior QBs who are drafted. The senior group includes many who were never considered to be 1st or 2nd rounders. However, nearly all QBs who leave early are projected as fairly elite prospects ... otherwise they wouldn't leave. Better to compare those who leave early against seniors drafted in the first 2 rounds. But even then you're giving a bit of an advantage (numbers-wise) to the seniors, since many of them are drafted in the first 2 rounds only because they stayed the extra year.
Pete really is using selective numbers here. And by using subjective words like "failure" he could be saying anything. What constitutes a failure? Not winning the Super Bowl? Never going to a Pro Bowl? Not lasting until the end of your rookie contract? It could mean anything. Plus, the 62% figure he uses means 38% are successful (whatever that means).
Since there are about 120 D-I (Bowl Subdivision) schools, and you figure about half of them are quarterbacked by a senior, using Pete's math, about 23 (38% of 60) would need to qualify as successful (using Pete's esoteric definition of the word) to equal the numbers for early entries. Since there are only 32 NFL teams, that clearly isn't happening. In fact, I figure there is a 90-95% failure rate for senior quarterbacks coming into the NFL.
That said, I would have preferred to see Mark stay another year. Not only for his value to the team, but also for his personal development.
Here is something that is irrefutable: If Rhett Bomar, the who got kicked out of Oklahoma, is one of the top QBs available, then it's a no brainer for Sanchez to get in the draft!
Doesn't have the QBs year in college, but here's the draft history of QBs.... overall, there is a lot of failure (which I define as never sees the field or never sees a second contract)
http://tinyurl.com/cc2h94
It is a fun walk down memory lane for those that follow the draft.
Great link, Bruce. I just eyeballed it, and calculated that 44% of the QBs from 2000-2007 were successful in a very modest sense. I defined this as sticking in the league, or being on track to stick in the league, for a decent period, say 5 years. This seems to continue to show that PC's statistics are too selective, as they really reflect the success rate of all QBs as a whole.