I dunno. Here are my thoughts on the major Derby preps and what to make of them.

1. Florida Derby: Winner Take Charge Indy just saw his chances take a hit with Bodemeister's win. You can toss this horse with no regrets. He isn't gonna get a dream front-running trip in Kentucky like he did in Hallendale. And even if he does, Hansen and Bodemeister will have something to say about it at the quarter pole. That brings us to Union Rags. Love hearing pundits say it's foolish to look at Union Rags' trip and finish in the Florida Derby and think he's a good play in the Derby. Idiots. Union Rags got a nice lesson in the kind of uncomfortable trip a horse can get and still was closing ground in the stretch while nobody else in the race was doing the same. With a better trip, a big if in the Derby, this horse should be picking up the pieces very nicely while others will be looking for the proverbial place to lay down. My top choice.

2. Wood Memorial: I couldn't tell whether Alpha hung or if he and Gemologist were simply booking to the finish line. I like both horses, regardless, going to Kentucky. Love their styles. Have no doubts about their ability to get 1 1/4 miles. Overall, I thought the Wood field was suspect, but these two put in such a nice stretch run that I think they're poised for big shots in Kentucky.

3. Santa Anita Derby -- I like that I'll Have Another won on what should've been his bounce race. So does that mean he bounces in Kentucky instead of Arcadia? I don't think so. I still can't find an excuse for Creative Cause's second-place performance other than that some sheet interpreters expected him to regress in the race and he may have done just that. But everything was set up for him and he couldn't out-finish I'll Have Another late. Blinkers go back on for the Derby, which makes me wonder why the hell trainer Mike Harrington would ever experiment with taking them off in the first place. Oh yeah, that's right, a jockey told him to do so. Here's the best tip at the track: Don't listen to jockeys. In fact, don't listen to anyone. The SA Derby was not the most impressive field, after I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. The field simply stunk. SA Derby winners are working on a terrible streak of stiffing in Kentucky. Some of that has to do with the fact that nobody quite knew what kind of surface Santa Anita had up until the recent switch back to dirt. Both I'll Have Another and Creative Cause fit, and I still think Creative Cause is a very legit horse. Remember, he was flattered by Bodemeister's romp in the Arkansas Derby.

4. Blue Grass Stakes: Obviously, you wonder about the track surface at Keeneland and the one at Churchill being vastly different. So many pundits are chucking Dullahan simply because of that. I thought the Blue Grass had a deceptively good field, so I like the win and the way Dullahan did it. Hansen, well, I guess the distance and the running style are going to be a problem. Hansen is yet another reason Bodemeister is up against it in Kentucky. In theory, these two hook up going into the turn and are looking for a place to lay down in the final sixteenth. In theory.

5. Arkansas Derby: Impressive win by Bodemeister over what was a horrible field. This is a very talented horse whose style is not going to win in Kentucky. Just not gonna happen. What anyone with half a brain should be hoping for is people see the 105 Beyer and a presumably good sheet number and make this horse the favorite. But, the public seems to be sharper than doing such things these days.

Daddy's Derby Top 5

1. Union Rags -- Loss in Fla. Derby takes some luster off (and improves price).
2. Creative Cause -- Could be the best value in the Derby field (hoping for 10-1).
3. I'll Have Another -- Gotta ask is this horse peaking or has he peaked?
4. Alpha -- Come with that same run in Kentucky and he'll be in the picture.
5. Gemologist -- Does he bounce off big NY effort?

In order for Creative Cause to further stamp himself as the West Coast's best chance in next month's Kentucky Derby, the 3-year-old son of Giant's Causeway will have to overcome the rail in Saturday's 75th Grade I Santa Anita Derby.

Drawing post position No. 1 for the 1 1/8 miles trip on Wednesday morning didn't stop Santa Anita morning-line oddsmaker Jon White from installing Creative Cause as the 6-5 favorite in the field of 10 Triple Crown hopefuls. I'll Have Another was made the second choice at 5-2 and will start post position No. 4.

"I thought we drew exceptionally," I'll Have Another's trainer Doug O'Neill said. "We were hoping for somewhere in the middle, so that's ideal. We're just pumped. The horse is doing great and everything is going great."

In terms of performances to date, this year's Santa Anita Derby looks like a two-horse race between Creative Cause and I'll Have Another. The other eight runners all have upside in their own right, but would need to show far better than what's been seen so far.

Longview Drive is the perfect example of that. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained son of Pulpit is listed at 12-1 and has shown flashes in recent performances that he may be good enough to pull off the upset. It also helps that jockey Russell Baze flew in from the Bay Area on Wednesday morning to work Longview Drive 4 furlongs at Hollywood Park. The final time of the work was 49.1 seconds, but Longview Drive powered home the final two furlongs in 23.3.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert usually has one of the favorites in the Santa Anita Derby, but not this year. Instead, Baffert will try and take a spread approach by starting three longshots. Baffert will start Liaison (8-1), Paynter (12-1) and Blueskiesnrainbows (20-1) in hopes of his seventh Santa Anita Derby win.

If Creative Cause can overcome his rail draw, the rest of the field may be running for second. Creative Cause enters off a close win in the San Felipe Stakes on Mar. 10, which saw him race greenly in the stretch before pulling away late from the talented Baffert runner Bodemeister. Earlier in his career, he ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Hansen and Union Rags, who are arguably the current top-two choices for the Kentucky Derby.

But as racing fans saw last weekend in Florida when heavily favored Union Rags got a poor trip in the Florida Derby and wound up second as the big favorite, anything is possible when you're boxed in. And that just might be what kind of trip is awaiting Creative Cause on Saturday if he can't flee the rail before it's too late.

"It looked like with Union Rags that they were kind of herding him a little bit and trying to keep him in there and that definitely could happen to my horse also," Creative Cause's trainer Mike Harrington said. "Going into the Kentucky Derby, the horse is going to have to handle adversity. Maybe this is a good time for him to get started."

A big factor in Creative Cause's favor that may help him avoid a bad trip is the presence of jockey Joel Rosario in the irons. Rosario, Santa Anita's leading rider, has been nearly flawless no matter the style of horse he's been on at the meet and that could help Creative Cause avoid a bad trip altogether.

The same can't quite be said for I'll Have Another's jockey Mario Gutierrez, who at 23 is showing signs of becoming one of the top riders on the circuit, but doesn't have the same big-race experience of other riders in the race. That doesn't really matter much to O'Neill, though.

"For a young kid, he's an iced-veins kind of kid," O'Neill said. "He's a real humble, talented rider. The nice thing, too, is that we know we don't have four or five other connections fighting for him."

Another factor in I'll Have Another's favor is that lead the pony taking him to the gate on Saturday will be none other than former O'Neill California champion horse Lava Man.

"He can give him some last-minute pointers to chill, relax, breathe and just save your energy until the last quarter mile," O'Neill said of Lava Man's role on Saturday.

The Santa Anita Derby will go as the sixth of 11 races on Saturday. First post is noon.

Aram's take: I like Creative Cause quite a bit, but I hate the price. Nonetheless, perhaps a Creative Cause-Longview Drive exacta box is in order.

The first in a long line of ambitious changes being bandied about by new Santa Anita Park CEO Mark Verge will take place Friday when the Arcadia track re-institutes its "Free Fridays" promotion.

Starting this Friday and on every Friday for the rest of meet, all fans will be given free grandstand admission and the price for hot dogs, sodas and beers will be cut to $2. And that won't be the end of it if Verge, who was just named CEO on March 16, has his way.

"We've lost our way and we have to treat our customers better," said Verge, who prefers to be referred to as "the guy" as opposed to CEO. "It's going to change. We've been telling the customers from start to finish that it's going to change and that's what we're going to work on."

Fans will get in for free on Friday, but they still will have to pay $5 to park. That's something Verge said he hopes to have eliminated within the next couple of weeks, if not every day of the racing week, then at least for some of them. Santa Anita's meet will close on April 22.

"Yeah, they're still paying five bucks to park, but they're getting into the grandstand for free," Verge said. "Like I said, we have to build on it."

If Verge's track record of business success is any indicator, Santa Anita is in good hands with the 44-year-old Pacific Palisades resident at the controls.

Verge is best known as being the owner of Westside Rentals, a popular online real estate and rental listings service. The company now is run by his wife Lani. In addition to Westside Rentals, Verge estimated he has an ownership stake in more than a dozen businesses, ranging from hotels to several popular downtown L.A. bars.

But Santa Anita has become Verge's focus, and it also has gone from being a hangout for Verge during his teen-age years to the biggest challenge of his professional life due to the track's declining attendance and betting numbers, which are part of an ongoing industry-wide slowdown.

Verge started coming to the Arcadia track in high school with childhood friend Doug O'Neill, now one of the top trainers on the local circuit. Verge's love of the sport has led him to own several racehorses O'Neill trains. Verge and O'Neill attended St. Monica High School in their hometown of Santa Monica.

Santa Anita's previous CEO, Greg Avioli, lasted just 11 months on the job before resigning earlier this month, according to a statement issued by Stronach Group, which is the parent company of Santa Anita. Avioli, the former president and CEO of Breeders' Cup Ltd., will have his resignation go into effect April 1.

Stronach Group was formed after shareholders of MI Developments voted to approve a deal transferring the racetrack and gambling properties of the company to Stronach in exchange for Stronach giving up control of MI Developments.

MI Developments came about after the bankruptcy of Magna Entertainment, which then owned Santa Anita among several racetrack properties nationwide.

Verge declined to comment on what his salary package will be or just how much of a share he was given in Stronach Group, but he did admit it was more than he expected.

His job now is to solve all of Santa Anita's ailments, which are a microcosm of the industry's broader struggles as it falls further behind the mainstream sports world and fights to regain its status as one of the top gambling outlets.

"We're down," Verge said. "We're below women's soccer or men's soccer and a lot of other sports. We need to get on that front page again."

Verge, who comes off more like actor Vince Vaughn than a stuffy CEO, just might be "The Guy" to bridge the gap between racing's aging fan base and a younger generation that has shunned the sport because of the abundance of other sports, entertainment and gambling options at their disposal.

Just how, exactly, he plans to do that is hard to nail down as Verge's theories tend to be as frenzied as his thoughts. When asked for specific plans, Verge's ideas ranged from nonspecific ways to improved hospitality to a day at the track in which comedian actor Tim Conway is given a lifetime pass while his son Tim Conway Jr. gets only a one-time, $2 betting voucher.

"I just thought of that today," Verge said of the Conway promotion.

Beside bringing back free Fridays, another immediate implementation of the Verge era is putting a sign on the parking spot of track announcer Trevor Denman.

"He's our voice, he's our star, he's our guy," Verge said of Denman. "We don't have many stars who can talk here. He's the one."

That's right, from now until the current meeting is over, Santa Anita will be offering free grandstand admission on Fridays, AKA something the track should be doing EVERY DAY of the racing week in the first place.

Enjoy ...

HBO announced today that it has canceled it's horse racing-based drama series 'Luck' after a third horse died during production.

Let me be the first to say I'm not buying it. My bet is that this was the excuse HBO execs needed to get rid of this piece of garbage.

First off, let me say that I'm never happy to see anybody lose their job. Unfortunately, the show being canceled will put some people out of work. I could care less about Dustin Hoffman being out of work, but the production crew and those types have to be taking this hard.

I'm also sad to see writer and producer David Milch lose this gig because that means pools on the Southern California circuit will probably get smaller. Eh, maybe not.

Anyway, the bottom line is that 'Luck' simply sucked. The show was getting downright laughable and unwatchable. The only thing more painful than watching the guys on HRTV ask Gary Stevens the same retarded questions about being a jockey in 300 different ways is watching Gary Stevens play himself in Luck.

But the problems didn't end there. From the word go, Luck was obviously not what track execs and the powers that be in the sport of horse racing had hoped for. This was no feel-good series. It was all about the many seedy sides of the racetrack lifestyle. '

This was definitely not a show that would bring more fans to the track. If anything, it would turn them away.

Not only that, the plot NEVER got off the ground. If anybody can still explain Ace Bernstein to me, I'm all ears. Was he a gangster? A business man? A horse owner? A horse bettor?

His character was poorly developed.

Then there's the simultaneous plots. In this past week's episode, one of the degenerates links up with a poker dealer at a local casino and they end up going at it in the parking lot of the casino in his car.

First off, the actress playing the dealer was so good looking that the character wasn't believable. And if there ever was a dealer so good looking, she certainly wouldn't end up getting busy in a yellow 1984 Camaro with some degenerate.

The only redeeming part of the show was Turo Escalante, played by John Ortiz. That character was interesting and always worth paying attention. But even that took a turn this week when he befriended some kid whose uncle had ditched him.

Someday, people in the television and film industry will realize that the world that is horse racing rarely translates to the big screen. That's why 'Let it Ride' still remains the undisputed No. 1!

Follow me on Twitter @ChemicalAT

Two years ago, I decided to do what all American sports fans with an affinity for having some action on a game should do.

I went to Las Vegas for March Madness.

Consider it a pilgrimage. There's no better place to be, not even the actual games, than Vegas for this made-for-gambling event. Of course, if you actually want to be able to sit down while watching any of the games, then maybe Vegas in March isn't for you.

It was during this trip that I actually learned an important sports betting technique and it came from simple observation.

My journey started on a Wednesday, the day before the 2010 tourney began. I left the SGV for Nevada and arrived at the Bellagio by early afternoon. After checking in and dropping my luggage in my room, I headed straight to the sports book.

There's simply nothing like a sports book. I'm sure most of you have been in one, but it never gets old and only continues to get better due to technology. There are now high-definition big screens in some books, but those aren't the big draw; the odds board is.

Team names and numbers and odds and totals and point spreads all in lights spread across huge wall space. You can literally blow hours just staring up at the odds boards ... so I did.

I came to Vegas for that trip armed with ample cash and a hankering to bet a postseason tournament featuring teams that I had seen next to nothing of. In exchange for having the best postseason of any sport, college basketball has sacrificed its regular season, which is by far the most worthless and meaningless of any sport.

So there I was, doing what countless thousands will do this very week, staring up at an odds board that featured teams I knew very little about. How the heck would I find anything to bet? The usual suspects, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, et al, were heavy first-round favorites. The rest of it was gibberish.

After sitting in a recliner for a good two hours and alternating between watching the board and watching the people line up and make their bets, I decided it was time to do the other main thing I had come to Vegas for -- eat.

What happened in the next 45 minutes determined the positive financial outcome of the trip and equipped me with a mental approach that I will forever apply to the tourney. This year especially. Oh yeah, the beef chow mein at "Noodles" inside Bellagio was pretty damn epic, too.

It's in that restaurant where I put together everything I'd just seen a little while earlier in the sports book. All these guys lining up to get down were pretty much suckers. I kinda doubted there was one legit bettor in the group. Instead, they were just like me -- just another guy in town with a head of currency cabbage in his pocket ready to plunk it down on the spectacle that is the tournament.

Most of these guys knew nothing about the other 61 or so teams in the tourney not named Kentucky, Duke or UNC, either. They were there more for action than to win. My strategy now became real clear. I made my way back to the book, waited in line and upon arriving at the window bet EVERY underdog in all 16 of Thursday's first-round games.

The following morning I awoke, turned on the TV in my room and ordered corned-beef hash and eggs from Bellagio's room service. When the guy taking the order told me "We make our corned-beef hash right here on the premises, Mr. Toleegrand," I knew it was going to be a good day. And it was. The underdogs went 12-4 against the Vegas number.

Betting all the underdogs blindly thist today, or any Thursday for that matter, does not ensure you'll reap the kind of profits I did. Heck, you might even lose money. By no means am I trying to tell you that in 2010 I solved the riddle that is Vegas and sports betting. What I am trying to tell you is that if you adopt the thinking behind what led me to blindly bet the 'dogs and apply it to most any sporting event in which the public is heavily involved from a gambling perspective, then over the long haul you are likely to cash more winners than losers.

As for this year's tournament. Using the methodology I just described and taking it a step further, I will be looking to bet against the teams that are fresh in everyone's minds because of the strong performances they had last week. This will mean betting on teams that I've never actually watched before. In the first round, I like Davidson +7.5 points over Louisville, LIU-Brooklyn +20 over Michigan St., Norfolk St. +22 over Missouri and St. Bonaventure +7 over Florida St.

For those of you filling out brackets, might I suggest to take a more wise-guy approach this year. The elite teams are not as talented as years past. The gap between them and the mid-majors is closer than any time I can recall in recent history, and that's saying something considering both Butler and Virginia Commonwealth reached the Final Four last season.

Just remember, the masses come out of hibernation to bet the tournament. The masses aren't interested in betting on the Murray States or Wichita States of the world. They like the name teams no matter how down they might be this season. If I'm right, and who knows whether that's a good or bad bet at this point, this tournament should be one for ages ... for the wise guys especially.

Follow me on Twitter @ChemicalAT

Back in the day, the Santa Anita Handicap was one of the first major events that attracted me to the sport, er, gambling outlet of horse racing.

When I was a kid, most of my fellow teenagers played Nintendo. But I sweated whether Alysheba could hold off his nemesis Ferdinand in the Big 'Cap.

Those days gradually gave way to only caring about the Big 'Cap as it pertained to betting. Nostalgia be damned. By my late teens and early 20s, I couldn't care less who won so long as I won my bet.

So, you'll have to pardon me if I'm feeling more like sharing my fondest gambling memories of the Big 'Cap and not some artistic remembrance of a past winner storming down the stretch of The Great Race Place while grown men in the crowd wept in disbelief at the beauty of the running thoroughbreds before them.

When I think of the Big 'Cap, one memory comes to mind. It centers around one of the best yet simple philosophical questions I've ever heard asked at the track. And I've heard many.

The year was 1996 and the story centers around a character that those who work at TVG will know as "Laz" but back then was dubbed "Flyin' J. Brian" by me and racetrack crew. Yes, there was also a talented thoroughbred sprinter around that time named Fly'n J. Bryan. The other major player in the story is a local jockey and one-time TV personality who we'll call "Iggy."

The combination of the three of us was a hot mess. We were three of a dying breed back then - guys in their late teens and early 20s fully consumed by the track. That breed is now extinct.

Anyway, for weeks leading up to the '96 Big 'Cap, Flyin' J. Brian was touting long shot Mr. Purple. Almost every other thing that came out of his mouth for nearly a month was Mr. Purple-related. But once race day arrived, one of Flyin' J. Brian's biggest problems - hanging onto his money for longer than an hour after he came through the turnstile - reared its ugly head.

Back then, the concept of Santa Anita allowing its fans to bet on the races from up north was still new. It was simply too much for guys like Flyin' J. Brian to bear. And predictably, long before the Big 'Cap field took to the track for the seventh race of the day, Flyin' J. Brian was busted out. That made for several hours of him pleading with Iggy to loan him money.

Finally, just minutes before post, Flyin' J. Brian pushed too far, asking Iggy one too many times for a loan. It prompted Iggy to respond with an utterance that deserves to be put on a plaque, bronzed and placed somewhere next to Seabiscuit's statue at Santa Anita.

"Are you a fan or a gambler?" Iggy asked.

Translated it means: Sit here and watch the horse you've been touting forever win the biggest race of the year at long-shot odds while you're tapped, you degenerate idiot.

Soon, the starting gate opened. And if any of you have ever been in Flyin' J. Brian's shoes, you know what happened next ... and it did. Mr. Purple circled the field on the far turn, took the lead at the top of the stretch and rolled home to an easy win at odds of 18-1.

What should have been a victorious procession to the betting window to collect a handsome return turned into an angry exit by Flyin' J. Brian. Nobody knows for sure, but some accounts had him in the infield later that day kicking over trash cans.

Me? I cashed a nice Pick 3 only because I used Mr.Purple, who I did not like but felt compelled to throw in on my ticket.

You may not know it, but scenes similar to the one I just described will play out all over the track today. It's part of what makes the racetrack culture so unique. Some of what you see on HBO's "Luck" isn't too big of a stretch.

Santa Anita will no doubt attract a lot of fans who make Big 'Cap Day one of only a few trips to the racetrack per year. If you're one of them, you probably don't need to ask yourself whether you're a fan or gambler.

But if you're one of us who take it a bit more seriously than that, then embracing who you are, a gambler, may actually help you not follow Flyin' J. Brian's lead, and that could mean being in position to leave the track today with an epic Big 'Cap score based on your handicapping convictions.

Follow me on Twitter @ChemicalAT

Brilliant move by Santa Anita Park to card the Big Cap as the last race on Saturday.

Nobody's going home until Ultimate Eagle (your 5-2 morning line favorite) says so.

Anybody who knows me knows that I think the dumbest thing in the world (beside having a Facebook account) is to front your money and bet with an offshore sportsbook ... please pay particular attention to the first part of that statement ... the part about "front your money".

Further proof of why it's a bad idea came on Tuesday when popular offshore book Bodog was seized by the feds and indictments were handed down to its owner/operators.

In case some of you haven't figured it out yet, ALL of the major books will one day be seized. If yours hasn't yet, it's coming. At that point, you wonder about your money.

If you played at Millenium Sports (or BetMill) a few years ago, you know it's a valid concern. Don't even get me started on those who played at the poker sites like Full Tilt. It's real simple, do things the old-fashioned way and head to Vegas ... or make other arrangements.

I spoke to a friend who has a Bodog account and he informed that the book is still operating, but under a slightly different url.

We all know that sports betting should be legalized. There's nothing that makes it right when you cross an imaginary line the desert and get into Vegas. There's also no difference between betting on sports and the state-sponsored lotteries, the crook/government-manipulated stock market and horse racing.

Until the powers that be wake up, and it'll probably be a while, try not to get yourself beat without even making a bet by fronting your cash at one of these offshore shops.

Around this time every year, sports columnists across the country dig down deep for some worthless play on words about how it's almost spring and baseball season is near.

A wasted four years for a journalism degree leads to the same contrived poetic diarrhea splashed across sports pages and websites everywhere. But around here, for me anyway, spring training means one thing - it's time to bet baseball futures.

Ahh, the smell of the fresh-cut grass. The sound of the ball off the wooden bet. Yawn.

Odds to win the World Series. Yippee.

There truly is no time like the present to lock in the great prices that abound across the sports betting landscape as it pertains to the World Series odds. That will be the focus of today's piece. But there's a caveat ... and it could prove to be a costly one.

For the sake of trying to make a score and to also capitalize on a growing trend in pro sports, we're going to cut our shopping list down to teams only listed at odds of 10-to-1 or greater. Anything less, and we don't consider it.

Before delving into the selections, let's examine the two previous statements: "trying to make a score" and "capitalize on a growing trend in pro sports." They kind of go hand in hand.

Recently, championship winners across all pro sports have been of the long-shot variety. Monster payoffs could have been had on the Giants (NFL), Cardinals (MLB), and Mavericks (NBA) if you bet at the right time. Think about it, the Giants were 50-1 to win the Super Bowl in late November before putting together an amazing streak to win the title and reward backers handsomely.

The Cardinals' odds of winning the 2011 World Series were astronomical in August of that season, but they came on strong and improbably won it all.

The Mavericks offered a hefty price at the start of last year's NBA playoffs. Very few people had them pegged to even reach the finals, let alone beat the Miami Heat.

Long-shot winners have been the trend, so we're going to ride it and hope it keeps going. That's why anything less than 10-1 is out of consideration.

And anyway, who wants to lock up their money for the next eight months just to get a return of 4-1 on the Phillies (this year's favorite)?

Conversely, because of the high odds and low probability of actually winning, we will not be making big bets on ANY of the following selections.

So don't go raiding your 401k (or what's left of it) to get down on these plays. They're not those type of bets. The spirit of these wagers are small money to win big money.

1. Boston Red Sox, Odds: 10-1. Right at our cutoff, but we're going to bite here on the Red Sox when everybody is seemingly off them. Considering that the AL East is no slam dunk for anybody, with the Yankees always formidable and the Rays always ignitable, the Red Sox are just as good as anybody with the potential to be better than all of their division mates.

The rotation is the key here. With Clay Buchholz supposedly healthy and Josh Beckett and Jon Lester already in tow, the Red Sox figure to have one of the top rotations in all of baseball. And that's important because we have little doubt about the offense. There's legit speed with Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury. There's pop with Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez.

And in Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, there's two MVP-caliber players in the everyday lineup.

The Red Sox are not being priced as an elite team going into the season, perhaps because of the horrific way last year ended followed by the exits of the team's manager and general manager. But a fresh start may mean a spark, and we absolutely love Bobby Valentine piloting the ship.

To be getting this type of talent several pegs above where the New York Yankees, Angels, Detroit Tigers and Phillies are currently priced is a steal.

2. Cincinnati Reds, Odds 20-1. A lot of good it does you now to hear that last year we had some nice Milwaukee Brewers money in our wallets at 35-1, which we were able to hedge out and turn a nice profit with when the Brew Crew reached the NLCS. Much of the same principles that went into that bet are in play here for the Reds.

The NL Central is quite simply there for Cincy's taking. And if they do that, your ticket is punched to the postseason where 20-1 will look like a bargain.

The NL, as a whole, is no great shakes. We wouldn't even rank the aging Phillies (with Ryan Howard still hurting) up there with the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Texas Rangers and quite possibly the Detroit Tigers. But the fact the NL is no great shakes is actually a positive for us as it pertains to this bet. Somebody has to win it, and the Reds look to be the next-best team behind the Phillies.

Adding Mat Latos to the rotation in the offseason was huge. Granted, Latos' numbers will take a hit as he's now in a hitter's park in a hitter's division. But now that the Reds have a solid No. 2 in Latos behind No. 1 Johnny Cueto, they can use the back end of the rotation to simply eat innings and keep things cool in games where their offense can pick up the pieces.

Joey Votto is one of the top hitters in the entire sport. There's ample speed to set him up. There's another solid power bat in Jay Bruce, who is the type of player that will one of these years post a magical-type of season.

No team in the Central is as complete as the Reds, so the generous odds being offered on this likely division winner is a must grab.

3. San Francisco Giants, Odds 15-1. Three years ago, the Giants won 88 games.

Two years ago, they won 92 and the World Series. Last year, they won 86. We think that finishing with any of those win totals this season just might win them the shaky NL West this year.

One of the things we like to look for when taking big odds to win the World Series is a team that we feel can, or is very likely to, win its division and at least get into the postseason dance. Our first two selections both have strong chances to do that, as do the Giants simply on process of elimination.

Hey, Arizona won this division last year. What's that tell you? It tells us that had Giants star-in-the-making Buster Posey not gotten hurt and played in only 45 games, this team very well could have won the division again.

So now we have the Giants, having added solid players like Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera to the everyday lineup, and getting Posey back to make the offense better on paper than it was even during the World Series season two years ago.

The beautiful thing about this bet is if we can just get the Giants into the playoffs, then we start to really like our chances at these great odds when the pitchers presumably taking the mound in October are guys like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.

The only NL West team whose everyday lineup got markedly better when compared to last year is the Giants. The pitching is still among the league's best and now the hitting is that much better, making 15-1 on this very likely division winner well worth a shot.

Follow me on Twitter @ChemicalAT

On Friday, I will have a column about three excellent value bets to win the World Series.

The mere mention of such a thing should tell you it's time to start doing your MLB futures shopping.

I have already begun. But before I tell you about the big play I've already made, let me first tell you that when it comes to any kind of totals betting, my natural inclination is to ALWAYS LEAN UNDER.

If I find myself making more than five OVER plays in a year on anything, be it a game total or a futures total or a prop bet total, then I know I'm off my game.

When you play UNDER, you force "things" to happen in order to beat you. When you play OVER, you "NEED THINGS" to happen in order to win. No bueno.

"Make them beat you" ... that's my motto when it comes to OVER/UNDER betting.

In that spirit, I have uncovered what I feel is an excellent opportunity in the MLB futures market. Hopefully, your book has this bet available to you. Most of them should.

The bet is ....

UNDER 61 1/2 STOLEN BASES by a player this season. The juice on this is -115.

I absolutely love this bet. Last year, Michael Bourn led the league in steals with 61. So it stands to reason the books would put out a number of 61 1/2 on this bet. Take the high-water mark from last year, add a hook to it and let the bettors bet.

This is a horrible mistake on their part ... and they don't make many. The next-highest steals total last year was 49 apiece by Coco Crisp and Brett Gardner. That's a pretty big gap between the steals leader (Bourn) at 61 and second place at 49.

This should tell you that probably Bourn and maybe one or two others (presumably Gardner and somebody else) are the only ones with a realistic chance to cross 50 in 2012.

But basically, this bet centers around Bourn. Of this year's group of speedsters, he's the clear front runner to again lead the league in steals. But problems abound; Bourn isn't a great hitter (he's yet to hit .300 or better in four full MLB seasons). Nor is he a great OBP guy. And worst of all, Bourn is going from the hitter-friendly, pitching-void NL Central to the NL East. That means he will now see plenty of ABs this season against the Phillies' strong rotation ... and that means his numbers are heading south.

You can forget about Bourn hitting .294 with an OBP of .349 again this season. His numbers are very likely to dip now that he gets exposure against the likes of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Josh Johnson, Johan Santana and Strasburg.

The other thing about speedsters is that they're fragile. If a stolen base guy has any kind of injury, mild or serious, to his legs, you can forget about him running free. Any type of injury to their hands, arms or shoulders are also detrimental because these guys are typically not strong enough hitters overcome discomfort with strength. It just doesn't happen.

Speedsters, by nature, are among the most fragile guys in the game. And while we don't wish injury on anybody, we also realize this is a type of player that tends to get little tweaks more than others.

Setting the line at 61 1/2 has left the books little margin for error. There aren't as many pure speed guys in the league as there were even two years ago. And the main one, Bourn, has now gone from the hitter-friendly division to 18 games against the league's best staff. Numbers don't tend to rise under those conditions.

Beside Gardner, we're having a hard time to find another threat to steal over 50 bags. Gardner could push for 60 if everything goes right for him. So could Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, if he reverts to '09 form. But we don't see that happening because the presence of a secondary speedster (Carl Crawford) in the Red Sox line up actually slows Ellsbury down.

It's been my observation that an abundance of speed in a lineup actually spreads the wealth instead of keeping it one place.

Given this year's field of speedsters, this number seems a bit high and a bit focused around one player -- Bourn. I'll take my chances his numbers fall this summer and after him, there just isn't anything there that I feel can beat me.

(As always, we don't share the delight your profits, nor do we feel the pain of your losses, so PLEASE do your own due diligence before making a bet.)

Follow me on Twitter @ChemicalAT

I stand to Lin $3k if Knicks win NBA title.

I just did it. Couldn't resist. I've bought into the Jeremy Lin hype by risking $100 to win $3,000 on the New York Knicks to win the NBA title.

Obviously, this is a pipe dream. Obviously, despite the glamorous number odds of 30-1, this is a terrible value. The line should be more than double that. BUT, I am making this bet partly because of Lin and partly because of something else.

I believe the Knicks will have arguably the best front line in the league when they're totally healthy. Lin will likely continue to do his thing at the point and I kinda get the vibe that Melo's return won't be a disaster that puts the kibosh on Lin. If anything, you might see Melo play some of his best hoops ever.

At 30-1, the value is just about gone, but I think there's just enough left to force a bet for small money. Remember, the recent theme in pro sports has been for the longshot to win the championship. Think Mavs last year, think Cards in MLB. think Giants in NFL. No reason Knicks can't follow that trend, or at least give me a nice for my money.

DRF's SoCal handicapper, and I believe former Pasadena Star-News employee, was one of the winners in last Sunday's Pick 6.

That's pretty remarkable by itself, but when you consider Free's ticket cost him a measly $20, then it gets downright epic.

Free's ticket: 5 by 2 by SINGLE by SINGLE by SINGLE by SINGLE = $20.

Free's haul: $41,418.40

You can read all about it HERE.