Weather, or Not
Here's another example of the power of science. I used to mock forecasters for having no clue, and I used to quote often a friend who said that predicting that tomorrow's weather as being the same as today's would result in you being wrong only about 5% more often than professionals.
But I've been struck lately by how much I've come to rely on their increasingly reliable predictions. I looked into it, and it turns out that the increase is a fact, not just a hunch. In 1979, we saw no better than 70 percent accuracy for a 3-day forecast and less than 40 percent for a 7-day forecast. Today those figures have risen to 96 percent 70 percent, respectively.
That's impressive.
Leave a comment